Lack of Conviction

Current Positions
***************
+1000 UCO @ 7.90, cost @ 6.70 (increase sell stop to 7.00)

Realized Returns
***************
Even though I wish I could grow money on trees, I essentially have a fixed budget, plus 33%. However, for simplicity, return calculations will be done on a per-trade basis as it is highly unlikely that all funds will be invested simultaneously.

+1000 UCO @ 8.01 vs. -1000 @ 6.505
+1000 FAS @ 5.34 vs. -1000 @ 4.73
Total realized = 18.9%

Prospects (Longer-term by request)
********************************
ETFs: Given the bear market, these are inexpensive ways to hold 1000+ shares in a bullish trade.

UYM @ $9, China, China, China - Commodities have been killed. This 2x leveraged ETF will give you an inexpensive way to go long materials.

UCO @ $8, Crude oil prices are likely to pick up when the economy does, and I think it may happen before. We've seen three bullish inventory reports in a row and bigtime resistance doesn't come into play until $54.
(I own/trade)

SSO, DDM < $20, 2x leveraged Dow & S&P 500 ETFs

Single stocks:
STLD - Steel Dynamics @ 8.97
Industry has been shellacked along with the rest of commodities, but the anticipated Chinese stimulus package and longer-term recovery plan should boost demand and create lucrative opportunities for those brave enough to whether temporary plunges. Alarmingly high debt/equity ratio may scare you. Dig deeper and find the notes to financial statements and see that the majority of the liabilities are longer term, with the earliest chunk due 2012 @ 6.75%.
(I own)

FCX - Freeport McMoran @ 32.41
Copper, Gold specific standout. Recently has cut production and modified demand forecasts. On the November 20th low, FCX was trading around $15. Since then, it has more than doubled to nearly $33. Think you already missed the boat? Not likely.
(I own)

Market Recap
*************

Where is the follow-through? During the market's precipitous decline, we have seen a number of 10-20%+ bear-market rallies. Lately, we have not seen any momentum and today's rally comes at a tough time. Today's harbinger of pain, the ADP private employment, forecasted 697,000 private sector jobs lost. Should we see a number worse than -700,000 on Friday, it may be difficult to find reasons to buy.

The rally today lacked conviction because all S&P 500 sectors were not big winners. Financials dragged all day long, and I do not believe we can sustain a rally with weak financials. Can financials turn around? Ask Tim Geithner and what they are doing about the toxic assets.

Live from the corner of McKinney & I can't read that sign
Think happy thoughts

TM

******************************************************************
Before you act, think about your suitability and consult your own financial advisor