Friday, March 27, 2009

First signs of selling pressure

Positions
*********
+100 GS @ 108.98 vs. cost @ 74.79
+2000 UYG @ 2.80 vs. cost @ 2.00

Markets
*******
Markets have seen their quickest technical bull market since 1938. A technical bull market is a 20% rally off lows. We've seen a 21% move since the 12-years lows set on March 9. Today's selling is not at all surprising, given the profit taking and weak personal income and spending economic data. After disappearing from the face of the earth, Tim Geithner has been a regular on Capitol Hill. I believe the government/treasury has done plenty for markets. All of these programs, some highly suspect, will take time to impact markets if they do at all. There have been a lot of opportunities to buy into this rally, but it just doesn't feel like it is truly sustainable.

On March 4th, I suggested a bunch of longer-term trades and they have performed better than expected. This emphasizes the fact that most industries will rally or crash together. In one-way trending markets, industry diversification is useless. Over longer periods of time, you may find it somewhat useful. View those March 4 trade ideas:
http://tradefear.blogspot.com/2009/03/lack-of-conviction.html

Summary:
UYM @ 9, trading @ 13.24
UCO @ 8, trading @ 9.52
SSO, DDM < 20, trading > 20
STLD @ 8.97, trading @ 9.37
FCX @ 32.41, trading @ 42.01

Live from Queens
TM

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