Thursday, March 12, 2009

Follow through at last in a huge way

Returns
*******
Total Realized @ 14.7%
Sell 2000 C @ 1.62 vs. cost @1.60, return = 1.25%

C is too risky for me. Financials are risky, but I like the market leaders (GS) and ETFs only. Therefore: S 2000 C @1.62 and Buy 2000 @ 2.00. This slashed my returns from 17% to 14.7%. Remember I am calculating returns on an outlay/proceeds basis, not based on total capital.


Positions/Trades
****************
+100 GS @ 95.85, cost @ 74.79
Buy 2000 UYG @ 2.00

Follow-Through
**************
US equity markets have shown remarkable resilience. With just 22 minutes left to the close, we are looking at our first 3-day winning streak in quite some time. Markets have reacted positively to better than expected February retail sales numbers and a less than expected cut in GE's credit rating. February retail sales excluding volatile auto components rose 0.7% vs. a -0.2% consensus. Big deal right? Yes - January retail sales are typically overstated due to the impact of gift cards (sales counted when cards are used, not purchased) and to build on January's positive month-over-month is very encouraging.

Mark-to-market talks today reminded me of Geithner's February 8th testimony on his bank rescue plan and I was listening to the talks holding onto my chair and screaming, "Not again!" FASB Chairman Robert Herz told a House panel the agency "could have the guidance in three weeks." Are you kidding me? Three weeks? What the heck are you doing? Is there a more pressing need to address? Tim Geithner - do you know?

Nonetheless, markets are soaring with the Dow up 247pts, S&P500 up 30pts, and NASDAQ up 54pts. Asian markets should get a huge boost from the US short-squeeze 2 days ago and follow-through today. Tomorrow's economic plate is light, and thus earnings/guidance/unpredictable events should drive trading activity. I did predict 7 handles on the Dow/S&P by Friday's close - Let's just say I'm hoping we hold on tomorrow.

Live from Queens
Thinking happy thoughts

TM

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