Monday, March 2, 2009

6-Handles, Dow & S&P

Positions
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None

Prospects
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DXD, FAZ, DUG - bearish ETFs

Midnight-Hour Commentary
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Asian markets essentially got slammed as global recession concerns weighed heavily. HSBC trading was suspended and yet the Hang Seng was down more than 4%. U.S. equity futures are all lower by more than 1% in late Asian trading. We are likely to see a 6-handle on both the Dow (today) and S&P500 this week. Technical indicators are all pointing to falling equity markets and financials are likely to resume their slide after last week's brief hiatus.

This week is a heavy economic data week and no one is expecting anything uplifting, especially not from Friday's ultra-important Nonfarm payrolls report for February. The consensus is near -650,000 and some estimates are as high as -800,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.9%, but I think we crack 8%.

I may look to enter into some bearish-ETFs this week. I like DXD (Short Dow 2x) and FAZ (Short financials 3x). I also think DUG (Short Oil/Gas 2x) may be a good play despite the back-to-back bullish inventory reports as demand concerns may take the limelight this week, outweighing OPEC actions and supply issues.


Live from my upper west side commode
TM

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