Tuesday, February 24, 2009

sustainable rally?

So I was a day off. Bernanke's semiannual testimony proved to be the spark I was hoping for and anticipating - although I struck out on the source. Thank you Tim Geithner. I frankly don't agree with Mr. Greenspan or outspoken Senator Chris Todd regarding nationalization. 1 because I would take a beating that Rihanna could only imagine and 2 because its not going to solve anything.

Nationalization of ANY institution will actually worsen the problem. Socialize one and other shares will plummet in sympathy. So unless we nationalize everyone, let's not be ridiculous.
I actually support the Fed in their strategy to stress test the banks. Might have been a good idea to do this in 2006 but who is counting. Forget the tier one capital ratio and focus on TCE - tangible common equity. Weakness as measured by TCE will require additional stake ownership in the form of convertible preferred to common. Everyone knows that ridding the banks of their toxic, cancerous assets is the primary objective. The combined private/public asset buyer of last resort is a good idea. This way taxpayers don't get hosed like they did in the Goldman capital infusion. Two cheers for astute negotiator Hank Paulson.

Okay - to the numbers!
S&P resistance of 766 has been broken a number of times unconvincingly. Next level is 790 for today and 807 for the week. Risk to todays close? That ever so crazy 3:30 crunch time volatility

Here's saying the markets close up sharply, Dow greater than +200. Tomorrow we'll see what happens and there is room to run until S&P 800 before any real resistance. Economic calendar is light tomorrow with nothing pre-market. Existing home sales expected at 4.79mm but I see a number closer to 5. Vultures buying foreclosed homes as the primary driver. Watch Ambac earnings tomorrow pre-open, exp. -1.30.

Weekly crude supplies released tomorrow and expectation is for a drawdown in supplies. 10am

FAS @ 5.63, UCO @ 6.69
Increase stops to 4.35 and 6 respectively. Why? Profit taking tomorrow is a big possibility.

Live from queens.
Think happy thoughts
TM

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