Maybe you've noticed some glaring spelling errors, maybe you haven't. Even though back in November I single-handedly helped RIMM gain a point in purchasing the Blackberry Storm from backorder, posting blog entries is very difficult on it. So, please don't assume I'm as ignorant as Senator Chris "Todd." We all know Sure-Type enjoys mangling words.
Quick look at the markets
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Asian markets, as expected, are rising after the U.S. surge. Japan's Nikkei is up over 1.5% in early trade and I like the Hang Seng (Hong Kong), KOSPI, and other Asian indices to follow suit. U.S. equity futures are vacillating between incrementally small gains and losses just prior to Obama's Presidential Address. It will be interesting to see if futures react positively, especially after Bernanke's uplifting comments earlier in the day.
Let's be clear - the economy is in dire straits. Serious fundamental issues are likely to depress economic growth for some time, but many sectors, namely financials, were significantly oversold. Hope, is forecasted to be the underlying theme, and we'll see if he touches on market specifics - not likely.
Tomorrow's Theme
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A quick surge in equity markets tomorrow may create a tug-o-war between profit taking and short covering.
Live from the my west side commode....think happy thoughts
TM
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You are off to an interesting start...and I appreciate your doing your part to save the world economy by encouraging all of us to "think happy thoughts" when you sign off.
ReplyDeleteHaving warned many people to get out of the market last September when the Dow was around 11,000 because Paulson and Bernanke were testifying on the Hill and clearly had no idea what was going on or how to fix (I'm not claiming that I knew what was going on or how to fix - I was worried because guys as bright as Paulson and Bernanke did not have a clue and were horrible communicators), I now feel that the Dow will definitely close below 7000 in 2009 and will likely test 6000 before the end of the 2nd Quarter. And moving on from equities to currency markets, how much longer before there is a correction in exchange rates and people around the world re-evaluate the value of our dollars?
I too am generally bearish on the market. Fundamentals are terrible and financials haven't been nearly as big a drag on the major incides in late 08-09 as they were since Lehman fell. All long-term technicals point to Dow below 7k and S&P below 700, but the nationalization fears totally slammed the markets. Potential to fall future? Sure. Now the results of the stress testing will cause worry. I'll likely reenter shorts when if we see a convincing rally.
ReplyDeleteTo me, 2 things are very clear in the long-run. The dollar will get slammed and and rates will rise. I like TBT (essentially predicting longer term rates will rise) and short the dollar index. One exception is the Yen because I believe the American binomial boom or bust mutually exclusive world will have us raising rates faster than the Japanese.